Capability Evaluations as Leading Indicators

AI capability evaluations are leading indicators of economic impact. Adoption rates, usage patterns, and GDP growth attributed to AI are lagging indicators.

Historical evidence supports this: the transition from invention to economy-wide permeation typically takes years or decades. Electricity, computers, and airplanes all followed this pattern - capability preceded measurable economic transformation.

This framing matters strategically: it positions capability providers to claim economic relevance before the economy actually reflects it. The gap between “what AI can do in controlled settings” and “what AI does in the wild” is where the most important questions live.

Related: 05-atom—expert-parity-trajectory