Will AI Regulation Converge or Diverge?

The EU, China, and US currently pursue distinct regulatory approaches reflecting different cultural and political assumptions.

Two forces pull in opposite directions:

Toward convergence:

• The “Brussels Effect” pressures global companies toward EU compliance
• International cooperation efforts (US AI Safety Institute meeting with EU AI Office)
• Shared recognition of AI’s dual-use nature and potential for harm
• Economic pressure for regulatory interoperability

Toward divergence:

• Fundamentally different political philosophies about state authority
• AI as a vector for great power competition
• Domestic political incentives that reward differentiation
• Path dependencies in existing regulatory infrastructure

The question isn’t just which force wins, it’s whether convergence would happen around safety-focused or innovation-focused norms, and who would set the terms.

Related: 05-atom—brussels-effect-regulatory-influence, 07-atom—regulatory-philosophy-reflects-trust-in-authority